Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DC 0xdc7b…401e world 14 markets active 6h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 13L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$8,678per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 7% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 7% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 7% 0% -9.5%
all 14 +0.0% -9.5% 7% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$3 · ×6.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.33 per $1 lost it wins $6.33
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8,678
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $8,129 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $16,200 $0 +0%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $8,036 $0 +0%
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $7,888 $0 +0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $8,134 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $8,134 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $8,142 −$3 -0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $8,131 $0 +0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $8,133 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $8,136 $0 +0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $8,101 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8,108 $0 +0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $8,101 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $8,121 +$17 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $8,129 5h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $8,129 5h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $95 5h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $7,995 5h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $8,090 5h
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8,036 5h
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8,036 5h
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7,888 5h
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7,888 5h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8,134 6h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8,134 6h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 7h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $559 7h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $233 7h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7,347 7h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8,142 8h
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8,131 8h
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8,131 8h
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8,133 8h
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8,133 8h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8,129 8h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8,134 8h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8,136 8h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8,136 8h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8,101 8h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8,101 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8,108 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8,108 9h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $8,101 9h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $8,101 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records