Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:21:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc80…ae6f sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$568 (+8%) realized +$602 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate63%26W / 15L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$85
14 days+$127
30 days+$433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$823
other 15% −$249
tech 1% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -20.1% -27.7% 67% 67% +1.4%
≤30d 10 -18.2% -25.9% 60% 60% +3.5%
≤90d 23 -8.7% -17.4% 61% 52% -6.6%
all 41 +0.5% -9.1% 63% 59% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 59% -2.1%
10% -17.8% 51% -11.4%
15% -25.7% 46% -20.0%
20% -33.0% 29% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$88 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$602
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses26 / 15
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage201d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Main Card) Michal Oleksiejczuk 48¢ 38¢ $48 $38 −$9 (-20%)
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Eric Nolan 25¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $202 +$36 +18%
Will Javier Reyes win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $456 +$100 +22%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $800 +$190 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $140 +$58 +41%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $281 +$194 +69%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $684 +$305 +45%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) May 09 $22 +$18 +83%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car May 09 $51 +$48 +93%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) May 09 $53 +$46 +86%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) May 09 $65 +$35 +54%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car May 09 $60 +$40 +67%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $68 +$32 +47%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $140 −$80 -57%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Apr 11 $280 −$280 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Chase Hooper vs. Lance Gibson Jr. (Lightweight, Main Apr 11 $55 −$55 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 11 $99 −$98 -98%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 04 $156 +$10 +6%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-04 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 04 $287 +$6 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel Mar 29 $150 +$58 +39%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 29 $356 +$44 +12%
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight Mar 29 $43 +$57 +132%
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Mar 29 $189 +$111 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr Mar 28 $74 −$69 -93%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Afri Mar 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Mar 15 $62 −$62 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Mar 15 $120 +$80 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prel Mar 15 $202 +$47 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 15 $50 +$25 +49%
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO? Mar 09 $42 −$42 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 09 $54 +$23 +43%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 09 $68 +$32 +47%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 09 $60 +$40 +67%
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 08 $122 +$78 +64%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 07 $200 +$154 +77%
Magnus Carlsen wins both World Rapid & Blitz Championships? Dec 30 $295 −$79 -27%
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Champion Dec 30 $120 −$46 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 48¢ $4 3m
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 48¢ $10 3m
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 48¢ $10 3m
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 48¢ $10 3m
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 48¢ $10 3m
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 48¢ $5 3m
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 48¢ $1 3m
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Eric Nolan 25¢ $25 28m
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Farman Hasanov 69¢ $137 31m
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 59¢ $118 32m
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Nursulton Ruziboev 75¢ $18 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Nursulton Ruziboev 75¢ $6 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Nursulton Ruziboev 75¢ $98 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Nursulton Ruziboev 75¢ $116 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 63¢ $202 1h
Will Javier Reyes win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Bekzat Almakhan 47¢ $556 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $9 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $15 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $123 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $161 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $30 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $30 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $20 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $8 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $61 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 75¢ $150 12d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 12d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $990 12d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 80¢ $45 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.55 · official $52.55 · 124 history records