Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdc83…bcd2 other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$2,646 (-3%) realized +$2,777 · open −$807
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%33W / 31L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$1,200per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$21,199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,115
7 days−$810
14 days+$931
30 days+$899
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$1,081
crypto 17% −$936
other 13% +$3,047
tech 4% +$309
finance 4% −$1,191
politics 0% −$274
economics 0% −$66
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +23.6% +11.8% 47% 37% -12.9%
≤30d 44 +14.6% +3.7% 50% 36% -7.9%
≤90d 61 +9.9% -0.6% 51% 39% -6.3%
all 64 +10.4% -0.2% 52% 39% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 39% -5.6%
10% -9.7% 33% -14.7%
15% -18.4% 27% -22.9%
20% -26.4% 14% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,089) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$335 vs −$267 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$21,199
Realized+$2,777
Unrealized−$807
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)64 / 77
History coverage104d
Avg bet$1,200
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 91¢ $11,579 $11,941 +$362 (+3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 77¢ $8,094 $7,455 −$639 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 73¢ 79¢ $843 $906 +$63 (+7%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Yes 55¢ 30¢ $856 $455 −$401 (-47%)
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? No 77¢ 86¢ $231 $256 +$26 (+11%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $228 $104 −$124 (-54%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Clavicular sentenced to prison? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $19 $4 −$15 (-78%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $6 $2 −$4 (-63%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $18 $1 −$16 (-94%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ $59 $0 −$58 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 14 $2,611 −$229 -9%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Jun 14 $170 −$66 -38%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $420 +$28 +7%
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? Jun 14 $840 −$40 -5%
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $1,394 −$11 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $2,074 −$1,166 -56%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 14 $1,358 +$587 +43%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $1,516 +$64 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,101 −$698 -63%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1,148 −$635 -55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $320 −$66 -21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,089 −$614 -56%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 14 $728 −$717 -98%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 14 $360 −$319 -88%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $457 −$242 -53%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Jun 13 $14 +$8 +56%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $718 +$140 +20%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $205 +$43 +21%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $763 +$842 +110%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in June? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $617 +$7 +1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $482 +$457 +95%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,276 +$637 +50%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $143 −$77 -54%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $879 +$281 +32%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $42 +$435 +1032%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $750 +$750 +100%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $75 +$26 +35%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 06 $212 −$59 -28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $11,411 −$1,092 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $8,172 +$561 +7%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? Jun 01 $66 +$44 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,240 +$2,133 +34%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $97 −$69 -72%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,054 +$222 +21%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? May 29 $1 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 5AM ET May 29 $301 −$46 -15%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,640 +$112 +7%
Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026? May 28 $40 +$19 +49%
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 23, 2026? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 26 $264 −$114 -43%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $168 −$92 -55%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $255 $0 +0%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 01 $786 +$507 +64%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $880 +$341 +39%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $2,393 +$870 +36%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 28 $126 −$112 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $90 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $843 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $842 48m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1,852 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $5 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $117 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $65 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $419 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $1,066 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $20 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $5 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $100 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $59 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $460 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $71 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $750 1h
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $1,285 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $679 1h
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $105 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $448 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1,938 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $868 1h
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? SELL No 91¢ $800 1h
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? SELL No 93¢ $1,383 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 21¢ $388 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,198.69 · official $21,198.69 (match) · 748 history records