Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc85…aa54 sports 1059 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$158 (+1%) realized +$69 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%589W / 442L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day106.4pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$179
14 days+$88
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$56
crypto 17% −$9
other 2% +$15
world 1% +$145
tech 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 358 -9.2% -17.9% 46% 42% -12.1%
≤30d 1031 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 44% -9.0%
≤90d 1031 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 44% -9.0%
all 1031 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 44% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 44% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 34% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 27% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 21% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$562
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses589 / 442
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions27
Markets (closed)1031 / 1059
History coverage23d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day106.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 1031 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 79¢ $30 $138 +$109 (+366%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 98¢ 97¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 89¢ 96¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+8%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 94¢ 93¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 94¢ 92¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ 100¢ $8 $14 +$7 (+89%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Under 56¢ 100¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+78%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ 100¢ $6 $11 +$4 (+72%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Tampa Bay Rays 66¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+51%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 86¢ 97¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 34¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+194%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 27¢ 34¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $85 +$76 +89%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 +$8 +156%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $7 −$1 -14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $11 +$8 +73%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $22 +$5 +23%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 172.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $100 +$34 +34%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $33 +$20 +61%
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) Jun 14 $24 +$24 +97%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 14 $17 +$2 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$16 +86%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +56%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $100 −$69 -69%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 +$4 +28%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 14 $9 +$11 +125%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $49 +$65 +134%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +72%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +113%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $12 −$5 -44%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$4 +233%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 +$4 +233%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $101 −$88 -88%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $4 +$3 +86%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +30%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $29 −$24 -81%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $51 +$74 +146%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +127%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $2 28m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $1 29m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $1 29m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 56¢ $6 48m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $6 48m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 43¢ $34 48m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $33 48m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $2 48m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 66¢ $3 56m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 66¢ $1 56m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 66¢ $3 56m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $4 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 94¢ $0 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 24¢ $4 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 33¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 33¢ $0 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 36¢ $4 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 21¢ $0 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 34¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 36¢ $2 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 94¢ $14 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $14 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $8 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 96¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $562.08 · official $562.09 (match) · 3500 history records