Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc86…6dcc crypto 345 markets active 2d ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$498 (-17%) realized −$468 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%196W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day36.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$104
14 days−$101
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$61
crypto 44% −$22
sports 9% −$6
other 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 34% -25.0%
≤30d 344 -4.5% -13.6% 57% 48% -12.4%
≤90d 344 -4.5% -13.6% 57% 48% -12.4%
all 344 -4.5% -13.6% 57% 48% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 48% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 37% -20.8%
15% -29.4% 29% -28.5%
20% -36.3% 21% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$468
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses196 / 148
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)344 / 345
History coverage27d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $121 $91 −$30 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 +$24 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$10 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$11 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$5 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$7 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$3 -25%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $14 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $50 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $65 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 62¢ $28 5d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 10¢ $28 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 62¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.37 · official $91.37 (match) · 1128 history records