Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:12:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc89…7ac3 crypto 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2964 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$320 (-0%) realized +$98 · open −$418
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%103W / 155L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day2964.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,344
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2964 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 +42.8% +29.2% 40% 2% -8.2%
≤30d 258 +42.8% +29.2% 40% 2% -8.2%
≤90d 258 +42.8% +29.2% 40% 2% -8.2%
all 258 +42.8% +29.2% 40% 2% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2964.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.2% 2% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here +16.8% 2% -17.0%
15% +5.6% 2% -25.0%
20% -4.8% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +86% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$4 · ×5.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.39 per $1 lost it wins $5.39
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,397
Realized+$98
Unrealized−$418
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses103 / 155
Open positions8
Markets (closed)258 / 266
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$307
Trades / day2964.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 51¢ 96¢ $151 $285 +$133 (+88%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 52¢ 86¢ $157 $260 +$103 (+65%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 50¢ 86¢ $145 $247 +$103 (+71%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 50¢ 62¢ $150 $186 +$36 (+24%)
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $155 $156 +$1 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 49¢ 56¢ $134 $154 +$20 (+15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 50¢ 52¢ $148 $152 +$4 (+3%)
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 48¢ 50¢ $146 $149 +$4 (+2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 51¢ 48¢ $155 $148 −$6 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 53¢ 44¢ $180 $148 −$32 (-18%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $142 $145 +$4 (+3%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Up 50¢ 38¢ $154 $118 −$36 (-23%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Up 48¢ 14¢ $147 $44 −$103 (-70%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Up 50¢ 14¢ $151 $41 −$110 (-73%)
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Up 50¢ 4¢ $152 $14 −$138 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $343 −$9 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $311 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $321 −$7 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $334 −$6 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $367 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $625 +$3 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $395 −$14 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $372 −$51 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $308 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $324 −$7 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $306 −$1 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $300 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $309 −$5 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $303 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $320 −$3 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $304 +$1 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $308 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $329 +$6 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $328 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $325 −$1 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $315 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $309 +$9 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $315 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $304 +$6 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $300 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $302 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $300 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $523 −$31 -6%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $324 −$24 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $348 −$11 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $354 +$20 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $304 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $300 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $300 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $302 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $326 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $318 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $319 −$1 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $316 +$7 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $307 −$3 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $300 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $311 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $306 +$1 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $304 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $306 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $334 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $324 +$13 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $4 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $3 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $11 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $4 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,397.45 · official $2,397.48 (match) · 3500 history records