Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc8a…112b crypto 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$747 (-6%) realized −$880 · open +$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%56W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$315
7 days−$655
14 days−$655
30 days−$655
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$1,119
other 15% +$1,797
sports 7% −$348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -39.9% -45.6% 14% 14% -21.2%
≤30d 73 -39.9% -45.6% 14% 14% -21.2%
≤90d 215 -10.3% -18.9% 26% 25% -19.2%
all 215 -10.3% -18.9% 26% 25% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 25% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 23% -27.0%
15% -33.7% 21% -34.0%
20% -40.2% 20% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$52 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$437
Realized−$880
Unrealized+$133
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses56 / 159
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)215 / 177
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $102 $187 +$85 (+83%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $102 $129 +$27 (+27%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $99 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$73 -149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$44 -159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$39 -557%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$44 -421%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $202 +$403 +199%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $105 −$70 -67%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $102 +$271 +264%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $113 −$110 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $54 −$32 -60%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $67 +$186 +276%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $102 +$70 +69%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $108 −$79 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 48m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 49m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 49m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 51m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 52m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 52m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 53m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 53m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 54m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $105 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $105 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 100¢ $330 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 2¢ $35 13h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $101 13h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 28¢ $276 13h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 38¢ $373 13h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $90 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $23 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $88 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $105 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $113 16h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes 3¢ $22 17h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 7¢ $54 17h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 26¢ $67 35h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 40¢ $167 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.90 · official $444.55 · 3500 history records