Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc8e…4b5c crypto 38 markets active 3h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%25W / 10L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$432per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$6
culture 25% −$2
crypto 24% −$10
sports 13% −$2
other 2% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 35 -2.6% -11.9% 71% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses25 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage212d
Avg bet$432
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will BNB reach $1,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on May 19? Jun 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.90 April 6-12? May 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 April 6-12? May 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 April 6-12? May 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 9-15? Apr 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 08 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? Apr 08 $67 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 16-22? Mar 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 16-22? Mar 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Mar 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Feb 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in January? Feb 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 19 $122 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 30 $140 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on November 28? Dec 05 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 28? Nov 27 $2,185 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $2,187 −$2 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 26 $2,189 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Nov 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 17-23? Nov 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 24 $2,082 $0 -0%
Will The Weeknd be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 24 $260 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 24 $1,831 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 23 $2,223 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 22 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 22 $1,329 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Nov 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will BNB reach $1,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $78 2h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 36d
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $57 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 36d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $18 36d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 74d
Will XRP reach $1.90 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $15 74d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $23 74d
Will XRP reach $1.90 April 6-12? BUY No 99¢ $5 74d
Will XRP reach $2.00 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $25 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $49 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? BUY No 99¢ $67 101d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $17 101d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 BUY No 100¢ $42 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $24 121d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $29 121d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $47 121d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $122 142d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $5 142d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 142d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $7 142d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $140 198d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on November 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $110 205d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,185 206d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,185 206d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $2,185 206d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $2,187 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.98 · official $142.98 (match) · 79 history records