Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DC 0xdc8f…d0e4 sports 784 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$26,202 (+98%) realized +$26,224 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%293W / 486L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Fees−$847est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,239
7 days+$17,970
14 days+$18,913
30 days+$19,317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$18,787
other 25% +$5,036
crypto 0% −$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +51.9% +37.4% 63% 63% +152.0%
≤30d 225 +50.2% +35.9% 51% 50% +100.6%
≤90d 779 +23.8% +12.0% 38% 37% +70.2%
all 779 +23.8% +12.0% 38% 37% +70.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.0% 37% +70.2%
10% ← realistic here +1.3% 36% +53.9%
15% -8.5% 35% +39.0%
20% -17.5% 33% +25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +89% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$14 · ×7.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.47 per $1 lost it wins $4.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$26,224
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses293 / 486
Est. fees paid−$847
Open positions5
Markets (closed)779 / 784
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 779 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-05-24? No 48¢ 26¢ $49 $27 −$22 (-45%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 37¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Club The Strongest vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+31%)
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs WST (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 3 WST 11¢ 15¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+36%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Saudi Arabia $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 20 $75 +$293 +393%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $82 +$201 +246%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $1,969 +$5,540 +281%
Raphinha: 1+ assists Jun 20 $14 +$25 +178%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $103 +$16 +15%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $17 +$10 +61%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $137 +$155 +113%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $62 +$17 +28%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 18 $2 +$2 +90%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $203 +$146 +72%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $196 +$136 +69%
Timothy Fayulu: 3+ saves Jun 17 $2 +$2 +96%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 17 $3,029 +$4,925 +163%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $88 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $111 −$8 -8%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $238 −$238 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $120 +$89 +74%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -50%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $151 −$39 -26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $206 +$384 +186%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $489 +$382 +78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $4 +$5 +122%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $182 +$123 +67%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,808 +$4,844 +268%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 14 $86 +$69 +80%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $385 +$964 +250%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $29 +$17 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $116 +$33 +28%
Arda Güler: 1+ assists Jun 14 $20 +$14 +67%
Wilson Isidor: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$2 +133%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 +$1 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 13 $212 +$213 +100%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Jun 13 $4 +$2 +55%
Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $86 −$83 -96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $142 −$6 -4%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $62 +$70 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) SELL Ecuador 10¢ $169 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) SELL Ecuador 10¢ $198 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Ecuador $75 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $3 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $10 6h
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs WST (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 G BUY WST 11¢ $1 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $1 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $2 10h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 SELL Under 48¢ $118 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $40 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $4 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $58 20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 26¢ $27 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $137 26h
Raphinha: 1+ assists BUY No 36¢ $14 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 16¢ $17 40h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas SELL Seattle Orcas 52¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 30¢ $112 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 30¢ $30 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 30¢ $30 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 30¢ $45 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 30¢ $45 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 30¢ $45 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 36¢ $42 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs $1 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 14¢ $56 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 18¢ $67 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 22¢ $79 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 70¢ $332 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.89 · official $32.89 (match) · 3500 history records