Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdc96…2791 sports 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$549 (-6%) realized −$550 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%38W / 26L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$251
7 days+$251
14 days−$686
30 days−$686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$451
other 12% −$224
crypto 1% −$8
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +12.2% +1.5% 62% 50% +1.2%
≤30d 59 -1.6% -11.0% 59% 42% -16.5%
≤90d 59 -1.6% -11.0% 59% 42% -16.5%
all 64 -1.3% -10.7% 59% 41% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 41% -16.5%
10% -19.3% 30% -24.5%
15% -27.1% 22% -31.8%
20% -34.2% 17% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$63 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$550
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses38 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 69
History coverage563d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season University War 29¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $152 +$42 +27%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Sta Jun 23 $72 +$8 +11%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $275 −$120 -44%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $254 +$20 +8%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $101 +$15 +15%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $128 +$11 +9%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $273 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $32 −$11 -33%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $212 +$55 +26%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $7 +$4 +55%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $222 −$21 -9%
Valorant: Team Solid vs INTZ (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$10 +101%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 −$2 -12%
Valorant: Elevate vs F4TALITY (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In Jun 23 $49 +$171 +351%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$35 +170%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina Jun 23 $10 +$9 +87%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $10 +$6 +59%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $204 +$51 +25%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $15 +$8 +50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $343 −$343 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $502 −$444 -88%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $689 −$158 -23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $49 +$5 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $265 +$25 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $246 +$79 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $895 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $705 +$102 +14%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $114 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $68 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $200 +$32 +16%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $104 +$23 +22%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $926 +$2 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $887 −$216 -24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$5 +53%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $51 +$5 +9%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $46 +$17 +37%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $172 +$92 +53%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R BUY University War 29¢ $10 10m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $10 31m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $152 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Sta SELL Shifters 99¢ $79 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Sta BUY Shifters 89¢ $72 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $154 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $275 3h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner SELL BESTIA 100¢ $274 3h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BESTIA 92¢ $245 3h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BESTIA 92¢ $9 3h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL FOKUS 67¢ $116 4h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Uzbekistan 100¢ $139 4h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 92¢ $8 4h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 92¢ $119 4h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 57¢ $101 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $229 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 80¢ $22 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo SELL Power Rangers 17¢ $21 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 91¢ $171 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 91¢ $13 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 31¢ $31 6h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Enjoy 5¢ $10 7h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 56¢ $20 8h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo SELL 4ikibamboni 44¢ $24 8h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 28¢ $14 8h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 29¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 8¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL 9INE 45¢ $11 9h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 11¢ $11 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.67 · official $21.31 (match) · 332 history records