Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc9a…fbc9 crypto 1037 markets active 3d ago coverage 93d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$886 (-9%) realized −$428 · open −$458
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%431W / 537L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4,497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days−$228
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$390
crypto 46% −$285
world 1% −$76
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +59.7% +44.5% 100% 90% +44.7%
≤30d 62 -61.6% -65.2% 21% 16% -90.8%
≤90d 873 -11.0% -19.4% 44% 43% -16.3%
all 968 -9.9% -18.5% 45% 43% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 43% -15.6%
10% -26.3% 41% -23.7%
15% -33.4% 39% -31.0%
20% -39.9% 36% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$4,497
Realized−$428
Unrealized−$458
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses431 / 537
Open positions69
Markets (closed)968 / 1037
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 69 History 968 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $600 $940 +$340 (+57%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $600 $652 +$52 (+9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $600 $580 −$20 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $600 $547 −$53 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $605 $475 −$130 (-21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $600 $471 −$129 (-21%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $600 $390 −$210 (-35%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $600 $364 −$236 (-39%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down on May 11? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 9PM ET Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 5AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 2AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 4AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 11PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2AM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 11AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 7AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $60 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $618 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $618 4d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $618 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $618 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $617 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $618 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $618 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $618 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $8 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 11d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 11d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 11d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 11d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,497.14 · official $4,497.15 (match) · 3500 history records