Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DC 0xdc9c…2a09 other 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+0%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$16
politics 33% −$15
sports 10% +$102
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 96 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 139 +1.7% -8.0% 14% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 8% -9.4%
10% -16.8% 8% -18.0%
15% -24.9% 6% -25.9%
20% -32.2% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×10.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage132d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $270 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $182 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $259 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $210 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $232 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $429 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $230 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $240 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $195 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $273 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 18 $258 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $229 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $399 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 11 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $263 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $235 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $278 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $189 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $258 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,155 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 9h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 9h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 9d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 11d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 12d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $24 18d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $24 18d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 18d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 19d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 19d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 19d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 20d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $182 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.99 · official $30.99 (match) · 430 history records