Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DC 0xdc9e…5a9e sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-1%) realized −$378 · open +$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%28W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$272
14 days−$13
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$495
other 17% +$507
crypto 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +6.0% -4.1% 52% 52% -1.9%
≤30d 57 -3.2% -12.5% 49% 49% -12.7%
≤90d 57 -3.2% -12.5% 49% 49% -12.7%
all 57 -3.2% -12.5% 49% 49% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 49% -12.7%
10% -20.8% 49% -21.0%
15% -28.5% 49% -28.7%
20% -35.5% 46% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$98 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1,350
Realized−$378
Unrealized+$265
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses28 / 29
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions11
Markets (closed)57 / 73
History coverage18d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $200 $289 +$89 (+45%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 90¢ $110 $191 +$81 (+73%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Yes 56¢ 100¢ $100 $178 +$78 (+78%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ 55¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 48¢ 48¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants 57¢ 56¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ 68¢ $35 $73 +$38 (+108%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $81 −$10 -12%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $101 +$67 +66%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $252 −$250 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $203 +$148 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $41 +$64 +158%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $81 −$5 -6%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $122 −$120 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $304 −$13 -4%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $101 +$60 +59%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $202 +$112 +55%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $91 +$94 +102%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$86 +85%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $605 +$216 +36%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $264 +$270 +102%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $122 −$120 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $91 −$90 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $101 +$85 +84%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $81 +$76 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $71 +$56 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $122 −$120 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $152 +$98 +64%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $152 −$15 -10%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $152 −$150 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 −$65 -32%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $101 +$63 +62%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $122 −$120 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $121 −$120 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $91 +$82 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $96 +$80 +83%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $103 −$8 -8%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 09 $122 −$120 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $101 +$65 +64%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $91 +$70 +76%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $71 −$70 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $61 +$44 +73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $101 +$71 +70%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $66 −$65 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $81 +$67 +83%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $71 −$70 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arab BUY 21¢ $26 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams BUY 28¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $112 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $81 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $111 2h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $101 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $81 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Minnesota Twins 44¢ $72 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $252 25h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $351 39h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 100¢ $105 39h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $203 41h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY 22¢ $51 41h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 48¢ $81 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 59¢ $101 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $77 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $101 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $81 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $41 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 3¢ $21 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 61¢ $101 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $101 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 56¢ $291 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $304 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $161 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,350.34 · official $1,426.93 · 126 history records