Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdca0…140e other 311 markets active 1h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$182 (+1%) realized +$204 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%122W / 176L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days+$196
14 days+$196
30 days−$1,635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$816
sports 23% −$27
world 6% −$253
politics 3% −$84
crypto 2% −$67
economics 1% −$154
culture 0% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +33.5% +20.8% 50% 48% +0.8%
≤30d 110 -14.0% -22.2% 32% 29% -45.4%
≤90d 149 -19.3% -26.9% 28% 25% -52.9%
all 298 +10.7% +0.1% 41% 40% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 40% -17.2%
10% -9.4% 38% -25.2%
15% -18.2% 37% -32.4%
20% -26.2% 32% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +41% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$81 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized+$204
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses122 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions9
Markets (closed)298 / 311
History coverage622d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $118 $116 −$2 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 54¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 20¢ 18¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-10%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 8¢ $25 $5 −$20 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -96%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$33 +107%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$26 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $15 +$23 +148%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $74 +$66 +89%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $143 −$141 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$18 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7 +$16 +226%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$22 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$17 +55%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Jun 17 $36 +$58 +161%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$17 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$20 +388%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12 +$20 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$57 +1116%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$22 +216%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$17 +83%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $46 +$46 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $175 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$8 -16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$21 +83%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$35 +170%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 1¢ $1 54m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $25 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $15 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $63 2h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $121 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $12 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $10 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 19h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $38 19h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 19h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $74 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $47 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $71 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 33h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $15 33h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $10 33h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 33h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 33h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $35 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.22 · official $252.48 (match) · 1412 history records