Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdca1…544a crypto 1468 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (305 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,507 (-6%) realized −$5,566 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%851W / 619L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day304.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,347
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (305 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1470 +6.8% -3.4% 58% 57% -5.4%
≤30d 1470 +6.8% -3.4% 58% 57% -5.4%
≤90d 1470 +6.8% -3.4% 58% 57% -5.4%
all 1470 +6.8% -3.4% 58% 57% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover304.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 57% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 56% -14.5%
15% -21.1% 49% -22.8%
20% -28.8% 43% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$53 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$5,566
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses851 / 619
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1470 / 1468
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day304.9
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 48¢ 72¢ $121 $180 +$59 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $82 +$70 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$41 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$39 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$32 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$43 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$34 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$39 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$36 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$32 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $176 +$70 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$41 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$43 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $95 +$30 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$24 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $124 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $54 +$23 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $129 +$125 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$9 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$40 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$31 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $155 +$97 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $163 +$91 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $91 −$89 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$30 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $144 +$111 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $148 +$105 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $177 −$173 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $160 −$156 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $92 +$28 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $139 −$134 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $120 +$142 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $137 +$122 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $187 −$180 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $184 +$67 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $127 +$130 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $146 +$104 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$22 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $148 +$103 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $144 +$107 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $160 −$156 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $127 −$122 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $107 +$138 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $66 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $60 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $64 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $43 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $40 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $50 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $50 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $35 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $9 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $35 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $40 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $43 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $88 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $44 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $95 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $54 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $65 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $40 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.01 · official $180.01 (match) · 3500 history records