Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DC 0xdca1…fb09 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15,147 (+80%) realized +$16,337 · open −$1,190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +197% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +129% what you keep after slip
Net edge+129%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate66%47W / 24L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$661est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12,309
7 days+$13,903
14 days+$14,066
30 days+$15,107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$11,616
other 31% +$2,247
crypto 5% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+168.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +127.4% +105.7% 60% 55% +63.6%
≤30d 71 +197.2% +168.9% 66% 63% +67.6%
≤90d 71 +197.2% +168.9% 66% 63% +67.6%
all 71 +197.2% +168.9% 66% 63% +67.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +168.9% 63% +67.6%
10% ← realistic here +143.2% 61% +51.6%
15% +119.7% 61% +36.9%
20% +98.1% 54% +23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +197% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +247% → late +149% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$383 vs −$121 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.21 per $1 lost it wins $6.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$16,337
Unrealized−$1,190
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses47 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$661
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage19d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Under 2¢ 0¢ $201 $5 −$196 (-97%)
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 15¢ 0¢ $997 $3 −$994 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $0 +$1 +386%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $239 +$324 +136%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $4 $0 -3%
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: Olympic Dcheira O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $124 +$439 +354%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 +$4 +622%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,060 −$338 -16%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $982 −$215 -22%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $47 +$10 +21%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $105 +$213 +202%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 +$2 +179%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,200 −$706 -59%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 +$2 +478%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $66 −$1 -2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,200 −$451 -38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$4 +15%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$7 +59%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $731 +$1,461 +200%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $980 +$2,147 +219%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$21 +346%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $980 +$5,884 +600%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $669 +$1,383 +207%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $980 +$2,087 +213%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $88 +$32 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +605%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$2 -29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +154%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $579 −$52 -9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $734 +$71 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $207 +$82 +40%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,100 −$106 -10%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $113 −$27 -23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $401 +$150 +38%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $26 −$1 -3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $223 +$919 +412%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $447 +$662 +148%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $552 −$16 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $894 +$54 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 −$3 -19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$654 +322%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $203 −$19 -10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$7 +47%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $14 −$3 -22%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $26 +$154 +600%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $447 −$447 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $447 −$447 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $76 +$86 +114%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $4 +$12 +320%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 10¢ $2 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 2¢ $0 51m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $9 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $28 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $6 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $515 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $239 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 2¢ $200 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $17 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 2¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $8 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $3 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $167 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $265 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $8 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $39 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $7 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $150 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $167 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $137 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 10¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.35 · official $8.35 (match) · 446 history records