Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DC 0xdca1…9a58 politics 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$1
politics 28% −$2
other 21% $0
crypto 12% $0
economics 10% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
all 37 -0.7% -10.1% 24% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage223d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $111 $111 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $111 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $110 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $2 $0 -11%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 11 $111 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 28 $111 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $112 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Jan 23 $111 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $108 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $113 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 09 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 05 $221 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jan 01 $111 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 27 $109 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 23 $196 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 15 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $109 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 05 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $2 $0 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 29 $108 $0 +0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $112 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 25 $113 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 22? Nov 23 $109 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 21 $110 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 14 $113 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 11 $106 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $111 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $107 5d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $107 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $107 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $111 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $111 19d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $107 104d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $107 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? BUY No 100¢ $110 120d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 120d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 100¢ $110 126d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 126d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 129d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $111 129d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $111 135d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $110 139d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 141d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $111 143d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $111 145d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $112 146d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $112 148d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $111 150d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 151d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 152d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $108 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.35 · official $111.35 (match) · 154 history records