Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdca1…e3a9 politics 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$117 (-3%) realized −$117 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate74%25W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$165
14 days+$171
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$159
other 23% +$174
sports 16% −$156
crypto 9% +$20
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% +$5
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.7% -7.1% 88% 62% -3.9%
≤30d 10 -3.6% -12.8% 80% 50% -13.2%
≤90d 10 -3.6% -12.8% 80% 50% -13.2%
all 34 +5.0% -5.0% 74% 38% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 38% -12.3%
10% -14.1% 18% -20.7%
15% -22.4% 15% -28.3%
20% -30.0% 9% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$59 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses25 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage275d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $401 +$48 +12%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $324 +$20 +6%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $456 +$126 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $289 +$35 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $253 +$36 +14%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 19 $512 +$7 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $241 +$6 +2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $513 −$309 -60%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 12 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jan 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 07 $10 $0 +2%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? Jan 07 $10 $0 +4%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Dec 01 $55 +$4 +6%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? Nov 25 $30 −$5 -16%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Nov 18 $10 +$6 +64%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $10 −$3 -25%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 09 $30 −$8 -27%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Nov 05 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 Nov 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Nov 05 $25 +$4 +18%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $10 +$1 +11%
Milei out as President of Argentina in 2025? Nov 02 $7 +$1 +8%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 01 $30 +$3 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $10 +$2 +19%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 26 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Oct 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025? Oct 10 $15 −$3 -18%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $14 +$5 +39%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Oct 09 $11 +$1 +8%
US government shutdown in 2025? Oct 01 $10 +$8 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 7h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $582 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $324 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $289 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $289 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $253 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $253 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 85¢ $247 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 90¢ $247 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 87¢ $241 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 84¢ $241 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $235 17d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $205 20d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $456 23d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 33¢ $513 23d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL Yes 64¢ $9 159d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 66¢ $10 163d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 164d
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 164d
Nothing Ever Happens: November BUY Yes 94¢ $55 206d
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 207d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 42¢ $18 211d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $16 211d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 84¢ $15 211d
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 211d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 47¢ $20 211d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 53¢ $8 211d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records