Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DC 0xdca4…1c68 sports 1084 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 243d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$558 (+0%) realized +$540 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%435W / 648L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$1,003est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 244d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$3,201
crypto 6% +$1,426
other 4% +$485
weather 1% −$492
world 1% −$11
economics 1% +$226
politics 0% +$171
finance 0% −$40
tech 0% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -16.2% -24.1% 40% 32% -11.7%
≤30d 163 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 33% -4.6%
≤90d 626 -16.3% -24.3% 35% 33% -11.2%
all 1083 -10.5% -19.0% 40% 37% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 37% -10.3%
10% -26.7% 34% -18.9%
15% -33.8% 31% -26.8%
20% -40.3% 27% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$94 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$540
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses435 / 648
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,003
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1083 / 1084
History coverage244d ⚠
Avg bet$161
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1083 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner T1 85¢ 100¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 Jun 27 $28 −$1 -5%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $2,759 −$29 -1%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $3,961 +$1,711 +43%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $994 −$960 -97%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 26 $166 +$85 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 25 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $822 −$751 -92%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $870 −$870 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $117 +$11 +10%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $209 +$61 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$6 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$9 +177%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $2,095 +$917 +44%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $916 +$1,559 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $150 +$16 +11%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $481 +$749 +156%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $151 −$32 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$8 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 23 $465 −$465 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $1,448 −$1,433 -99%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 22 $54 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$13 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $30 +$13 +44%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $22 +$8 +37%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $365 +$525 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$60 +571%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $100 1h
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $7 15h
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $20 18h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 65¢ $2,730 40h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 65¢ $2,759 41h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $4,812 41h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $997 42h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Enjoy 48¢ $494 45h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Enjoy 48¢ $466 45h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 54¢ $40 45h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 45¢ $34 45h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $400 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $460 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $2,964 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL YFT Esports 34¢ $2 2d
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL YFT Esports 34¢ $5 2d
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL YFT Esports 34¢ $18 2d
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL YFT Esports 34¢ $5 2d
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL YFT Esports 34¢ $2 2d
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL YFT Esports 34¢ $3 2d
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL YFT Esports 34¢ $8 2d
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL YFT Esports 34¢ $7 2d
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL YFT Esports 34¢ $8 2d
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL YFT Esports 34¢ $2 2d
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL YFT Esports 34¢ $5 2d
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL YFT Esports 34¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.59 · official $117.59 (match) · 3500 history records