Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DC 0xdcac…1328 sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$271 (+29%) realized +$271 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$35
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$210
other 23% +$56
world 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -26.7% -33.6% 23% 19% +3.9%
≤30d 30 -29.0% -35.7% 23% 20% -12.3%
≤90d 44 -3.7% -12.9% 34% 32% +17.6%
all 44 -3.7% -12.9% 34% 32% +17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 32% +17.6%
10% -21.2% 32% +6.3%
15% -28.9% 27% -3.9%
20% -35.8% 27% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$9 · ×3.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage75d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 +$27 +109%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$5 -66%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -80%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$5 +24%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$13 -83%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $0 $0 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -61%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -18%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$9 -46%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 +$48 +310%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $16 +$24 +149%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$32 +63%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 −$6 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $71 −$70 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $10 −$8 -75%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $30 +$30 +99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $20 +$84 +408%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $81 +$117 +143%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $92 −$13 -14%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $81 +$82 +100%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $101 +$25 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Manolo Zecchini vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Ma May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $17 −$17 -98%
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Preli Apr 11 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $22 +$17 +77%
UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light He Apr 05 $6 −$6 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Preli Apr 04 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers (Lightweight, Preli Apr 04 $5 +$9 +185%
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Alice Pereira (Women's Bantamweight, Apr 04 $10 +$8 +78%
UFC Fight Night: Tresean Gore vs. Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight, Prelims Apr 04 $5 +$10 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 9h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 81¢ $29 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $13 33h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $0 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 33h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 33h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $3 35h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes $0 36h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 36h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes $0 36h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes $2 36h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 37h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 37h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 37h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 37h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 38h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 38h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.55 · official $49.55 (match) · 88 history records