Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DC 0xdcaf…c830 sports 503 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,349 (+7%) realized +$5,349 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate40%199W / 304L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Fees−$772est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,037
7 days+$1,752
14 days+$1,206
30 days+$3,126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$1,764
other 29% +$3,001
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 +13.1% +2.4% 41% 24% -1.8%
≤30d 187 +10.1% -0.3% 47% 28% +2.1%
≤90d 503 +18.3% +7.1% 40% 24% -2.8%
all 503 +18.3% +7.1% 40% 24% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.1% 24% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -3.2% 16% -12.1%
15% -12.5% 11% -20.6%
20% -21.1% 9% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$24 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5,349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses199 / 304
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$772
Open positions0
Markets (closed)503 / 503
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$164
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 503 Trades
no open positions (95 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $424 +$51 +12%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $931 +$169 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $709 +$391 +55%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $423 +$126 +30%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $853 −$115 -14%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $44 −$31 -71%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $736 +$132 +18%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $905 +$195 +22%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $983 +$117 +12%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $21 +$2 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $997 +$104 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $177 +$71 +40%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $252 +$24 +10%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Jun 18 $4 $0 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -17%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -9%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17 −$1 -8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -6%
South Africa to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 18 $2 $0 -5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $90 +$7 +8%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $90 +$8 +9%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +9%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $76 +$6 +8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $90 +$7 +8%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $987 −$314 -32%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $90 +$9 +10%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 18 $16 −$10 -61%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 $0 -23%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $38 −$1 -4%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 17 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -7%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $1 $0 -11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $474 +$46 +10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -15%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $83 −$75 -90%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 $0 -1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $464 +$38 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $500 +$21 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 63¢ $714 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $853 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 4¢ $44 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $470 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 88¢ $424 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $361 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $721 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 90¢ $344 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $365 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,084 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $931 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $539 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $423 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 99¢ $23 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 90¢ $21 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1,088 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 88¢ $983 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,050 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 90¢ $955 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $49 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $41 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $277 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $570 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $736 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records