Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcb4…0b93 crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate56%35W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$8
sports 37% −$10
economics 13% −$2
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
other 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 63 +0.0% -9.5% 56% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses35 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage560d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $224 in May? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of March? Apr 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January? Feb 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in November? Dec 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Nov 03 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 29 $2,036 −$4 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 29 $2,068 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 29 $1,949 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 29 $2,015 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Sep 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $81000 and $83000 on Apr 25? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $2 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 16 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 220-239 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $95000 and $97000 on Feb 28? Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $813 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $812 −$1 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 02 $1,629 −$2 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $826 −$1 -0%
Will ETHBTC be between .032-.033 on February 7? Feb 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by January 31? Feb 04 $2 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid exploit before February? Feb 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $3 $0 +1%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 21 $2 $0 +1%
Ripple above $2.40 on January 17? Jan 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will LA wildfires burn 60-70k acres by Sunday? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 11 $2 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 11 $2 $0 +1%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 07 $1 $0 +0%
Dolphins vs. Texans Dec 13 $9 $0 -2%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Dec 13 $15 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. Flames Dec 13 $6 $0 -0%
Oilers vs. Wild Dec 13 $16 −$3 -17%
Pacers vs. 76ers Dec 12 $20 $0 -0%
Nets vs. Grizzlies Dec 12 $15 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Dec 12 $21 $0 -0%
Red Wings vs. Flyers Dec 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? Dec 12 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $224 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 30d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $36 62d
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 84d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $31 87d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January? BUY No 100¢ $8 147d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $34 147d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $44 206d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,032 236d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $2,036 236d
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $2,064 236d
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $2,068 236d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,947 236d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,949 236d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,013 236d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,015 236d
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? BUY No 97¢ $23 248d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? BUY No 99¢ $2 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 99¢ $2 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 98¢ $2 362d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 392d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 393d
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 393d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 394d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $81000 and $83000 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $2 423d
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 431d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 455d
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 465d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $812 477d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $813 477d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.43 · official $35.43 (match) · 180 history records