Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcb7…5b4b other 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 351d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,041 (-9%) realized −$1,009 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate39%53W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$115
14 days−$116
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 26% +$165
other 23% +$199
finance 14% −$505
sports 13% −$489
crypto 9% −$462
tech 8% +$139
politics 6% −$52
world 1% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -52.7% -57.2% 36% 29% -48.6%
≤30d 25 -58.1% -62.1% 32% 24% -46.9%
≤90d 32 -55.6% -59.9% 34% 28% -24.0%
all 136 -34.6% -40.9% 39% 25% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 25% -19.0%
10% -46.5% 18% -26.8%
15% -51.7% 15% -33.8%
20% -56.4% 12% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$41 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

351d coverage
Net worth$1,243
Realized−$1,009
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses53 / 83
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)136 / 147
History coverage351d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $100 $143 +$43 (+43%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $190 $134 −$56 (-29%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 77¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $87 −$12 (-12%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $85 $86 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $9 −$6 (-37%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $28 −$28 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $77 −$76 -99%
US recession in 2025? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $36 −$36 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $88 +$11 +12%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Apr 17 $67 +$26 +39%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 17 $421 +$89 +21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 09 $235 −$171 -73%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $84 −$60 -71%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 09 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 08 $10 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 06 $94 +$6 +6%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 26 $104 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in February 2026? Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Feb 25 $97 +$3 +4%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of February Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $35 +$112 +319%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $248 +$62 +25%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of t Jan 14 $7 +$13 +194%
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? Jan 09 $118 −$118 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Jan 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 03 $154 +$46 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $74 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 10d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 10d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 85¢ $10 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $92 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,242.53 · official $1,242.54 (match) · 432 history records