Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DC 0xdcb8…6b51 sports 332 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,803 (+9%) realized +$8,818 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate53%175W / 154L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$2,259est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$845
7 days+$1,306
14 days+$1,548
30 days+$5,723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$5,972
other 1% +$801
world 0% +$151
crypto 0% +$246
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +75.1% +58.4% 28% 18% +0.8%
≤30d 219 +26.6% +14.6% 54% 30% -3.0%
≤90d 329 +19.0% +7.7% 53% 31% -3.1%
all 329 +19.0% +7.7% 53% 31% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.7% 31% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -2.6% 14% -12.3%
15% -12.1% 9% -20.8%
20% -20.7% 7% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$27 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$8,818
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses175 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$2,259
Open positions3
Markets (closed)329 / 332
History coverage82d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-29%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$4 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $33 +$326 +980%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $18 +$232 +1288%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 +$239 +1116%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $11 +$239 +2161%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $28 +$217 +768%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $395 +$23 +6%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $101 −$18 -18%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $342 +$35 +10%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $95 −$52 -55%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $349 +$43 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $18 +$281 +1547%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,116 −$94 -8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,648 +$88 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $261 +$20 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $867 −$53 -6%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $360 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $28 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $18 6h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 13h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $18 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.00 · official $44.00 (match) · 3100 history records