Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcb8…f205 economics 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 190d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$79 (-39%) realized −$160 · open +$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 190d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 90% −$12
crypto 10% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 4 -20.0% -27.7% 25% 25% -49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 25% -49.4%
10% -34.6% 25% -54.2%
15% -40.9% 25% -58.6%
20% -46.7% 25% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$31 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage190d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $44 $132 +$88 (+200%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $44 $37 −$7 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 19 $31 −$31 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Dec 09 $20 +$43 +220%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.67 · official $168.67 (match) · 15 history records