Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdcbd…4bd9 other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,244 (-20%) realized −$2,620 · open −$624
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$2,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$1,970
other 29% −$756
world 4% −$183
sports 1% −$200
culture 0% +$4
tech 0% −$50
politics 0% +$5
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 50% -17.9%
all 41 -18.8% -26.6% 56% 46% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 46% -26.9%
10% -33.6% 34% -33.9%
15% -40.0% 20% -40.2%
20% -45.9% 10% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$288 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$2,282
Realized−$2,620
Unrealized−$624
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)41 / 49
History coverage628d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $780 $650 −$130 (-17%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $526 $394 −$132 (-25%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $375 +$125 (+50%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $375 −$125 (-25%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $125 −$125 (-50%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $125 −$125 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $125 −$125 (-50%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 83¢ 93¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $600 −$191 -32%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 22 $400 +$99 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 27 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 26 $1,000 −$526 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 26 $900 +$901 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 26 $500 −$367 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 26 $300 +$82 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 26 $1,000 +$151 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 26 $1,000 +$196 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 26 $200 +$291 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 26 $800 +$91 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 26 $500 +$134 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 26 $1,000 +$416 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 26 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Mar 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? Feb 17 $30 +$3 +10%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Feb 13 $100 +$23 +23%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 13 $100 +$43 +43%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jan 07 $20 +$11 +54%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 25 $100 −$76 -76%
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Dec 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 25 $40 +$14 +36%
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 25 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Dec 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election? Dec 25 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 25 $60 +$4 +6%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 25 $60 +$10 +16%
Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 27 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 17 $70 +$28 +39%
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? Nov 15 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $200 +$63 +31%
Penguins vs. Flyers Oct 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Supercopa Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona Jan 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Usyk beat Fury? Dec 22 $20 +$15 +75%
Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi? Oct 08 $100 −$90 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 24m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $542 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $803 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 2h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 2h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 2h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $42 2h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $94 2h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $409 50d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $600 67d
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1,000 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $474 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1,000 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $200 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $900 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $500 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $133 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $500 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $300 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $500 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1,000 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1,000 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $200 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,281.82 · official $2,281.82 (match) · 120 history records