Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcc0…ca25 sports 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$352 (-12%) realized −$322 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%16W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$91
14 days−$154
30 days−$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$172
other 44% −$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -76.1% -78.4% 0% 0% -65.3%
≤30d 80 -30.9% -37.5% 20% 19% -21.9%
≤90d 80 -30.9% -37.5% 20% 19% -21.9%
all 80 -30.9% -37.5% 20% 19% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 19% -21.9%
10% -43.5% 15% -29.4%
15% -48.9% 14% -36.2%
20% -53.9% 12% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$24 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$322
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses16 / 64
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage25d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 15¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $34 −$13 -37%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 27 $9 −$9 -97%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $10 −$9 -88%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $10 −$6 -55%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $63 −$33 -53%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -97%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $37 −$36 -98%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Both Teams to Score in Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
CD La Serena leading at halftime? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Cambodia (-2.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-1.5) Jun 09 $22 −$20 -95%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $50 −$41 -82%
Hong Kong SAR leading at halftime? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Union San Felipe win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $40 −$39 -98%
IR Tanger leading at halftime? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida leading at halftime? Jun 08 $17 −$17 -97%
Spread: Kosovo (-2.5) Jun 07 $157 +$282 +180%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $34 −$15 -42%
Spread: Cyprus (-2.5) Jun 07 $130 −$55 -42%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 07 $99 −$21 -21%
Cyprus leading at halftime? Jun 07 $45 −$12 -27%
Spread: Ōita Trinita (-1.5) Jun 07 $100 −$82 -82%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $41 −$37 -90%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $15 +$6 +39%
Spread: Montedio Yamagata (-1.5) Jun 07 $34 −$33 -97%
Ōita Trinita leading at halftime? Jun 07 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Giravanz Kitakyūshū win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $71 −$69 -98%
Tochigi SC vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $13 +$2 +16%
Spread: Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-1.5) Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-2.5) Jun 07 $14 −$14 -97%
Spread: Tokushima Vortis (-2.5) Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. FC Imabari: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $15 −$9 -56%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. FC Imabari: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $10 −$9 -91%
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $23 +$2 +8%
Spread: FC Imabari (-1.5) Jun 07 $28 −$27 -98%
Spread: FC Imabari (-2.5) Jun 07 $11 −$11 -97%
FC Imabari leading at halftime? Jun 07 $22 +$186 +864%
Gibraltar leading at halftime? Jun 06 $54 −$53 -99%
Myanmar leading at halftime? Jun 06 $50 +$41 +81%
Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5) Jun 06 $29 −$29 -98%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima leading at halftime? Jun 06 $29 +$81 +280%
Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5) Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $21 1h
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $10 3h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt $9 40h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 40h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over $1 43h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 44h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 24¢ $30 44h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $63 44h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 44h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $10 44h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $7 44h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7d
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 7d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $7 8d
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 11¢ $4 8d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $37 8d
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Both Teams to Score in BUY Yes 35¢ $4 11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $47 14d
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $34 14d
CD La Serena leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 15d
CD La Serena leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 15d
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 16d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 16d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 16d
Spread: Cambodia (-2.5) BUY Cambodia $10 19d
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-1.5) SELL Hong Kong SAR $1 19d
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes $9 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 152 history records