Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdcc0…22e1 crypto 54 markets active 19h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$46,321 (-15%) realized −$46,321 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate67%36W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,749per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26,829
7 days+$26,829
14 days+$26,829
30 days+$26,829
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$85,589
politics 34% +$4,436
world 18% +$33,568
sports 3% +$1,211
finance 3% −$233
other 1% +$145
tech 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +63.6% +48.0% 100% 100% +48.0%
≤30d 1 +63.6% +48.0% 100% 100% +48.0%
≤90d 32 -9.3% -17.9% 69% 34% +0.6%
all 54 -14.8% -22.9% 67% 39% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 39% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 17% -30.4%
15% -37.0% 9% -37.1%
20% -43.2% 6% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$3,463) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
31.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,603 vs −$5,787 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46,321
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses36 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage97d
Avg bet$5,749
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $42,210 +$26,829 +64%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $18,083 +$2,427 +13%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 25 $3,843 +$188 +5%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 23 $3,201 +$588 +18%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $53,582 −$10,851 -20%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $40,330 +$15,026 +37%
Lakers vs. Heat Apr 09 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Apr 09 $890 −$18 -2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Apr 09 $1,028 +$25 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Apr 09 $2,764 +$113 +4%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $1,347 +$32 +2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $821 +$24 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 09 $9,941 +$1,287 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 09 $596 −$596 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $9,232 +$6,101 +66%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 03 $982 −$982 -100%
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $224 +$14 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $769 +$212 +28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 27 $4,874 +$1,056 +22%
Will People's Party win the most seats in the Løgting in the 2026 Faro Mar 27 $2,371 +$232 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 23 $3,376 −$3,376 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 23 $6,884 −$6,884 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 23 $6,999 −$6,999 -100%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 22 $4,270 −$140 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 21 $2,932 +$495 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 21 $808 +$176 +22%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 20 $70 +$1 +1%
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 20 $70 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 20 $130 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 20 $61 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 20 $114 +$8 +7%
Pistons vs. Wizards: 1H Moneyline Mar 20 $20 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 16 $64,744 −$64,744 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 16 $1,546 −$1,342 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 16 $3,571 −$3,571 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 16 $3,463 −$3,463 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 16 $3,212 +$357 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 13 $99 +$50 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 13 $85 +$15 +17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13? Mar 13 $752 −$667 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 12 $601 +$53 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 12 $654 +$97 +15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13? Mar 12 $454 +$147 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 12 $436 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 12 $427 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 12 $38 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 12 $409 +$13 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $69,039 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $194 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $301 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2,114 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,210 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL Yes 13¢ $3,525 49d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $99 52d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 53d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $283 53d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $38 53d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 53d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $82 53d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $54 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $112 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,326 53d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 53d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $12 53d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 53d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $217 53d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 53d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $230 53d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 75¢ $25 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1843 history records