Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DC 0xdcc0…6aef sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$12 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate65%72W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$65
other 19% +$43
world 11% −$52
crypto 10% +$42
politics 8% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.5% -26.2% 67% 67% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -15.4% -23.4% 50% 50% -10.9%
≤90d 28 -5.5% -14.5% 57% 36% -10.0%
all 111 -0.5% -10.0% 65% 27% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 27% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 16% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 11% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$31 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses72 / 39
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions4
Markets (closed)111 / 117
History coverage589d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 91¢ 70¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Uruguay 93¢ 98¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 70¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 80¢ 46¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $55 +$12 +22%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $186 +$46 +25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $90 +$13 +15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 +$28 +28%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $82 −$7 -9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 29 $128 −$4 -3%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $169 −$169 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $17 +$3 +18%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $454 +$64 +14%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $261 +$51 +20%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $744 +$111 +15%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $41 +$59 +144%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $315 −$10 -3%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 24 $230 −$13 -6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $723 −$2 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 15 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $53 −$34 -64%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $188 +$22 +12%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 01 $414 −$22 -5%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $161 −$4 -2%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 31 $33 +$2 +6%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 31 $132 +$8 +6%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 25 $97 +$3 +3%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 25 $129 +$11 +9%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $439 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $373 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 10 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Gagan Kumar Thapa be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 06 $83 −$2 -2%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 06 $280 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $34 −$12 -34%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 06 $148 −$25 -17%
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 06 $159 +$4 +2%
Pistons vs. Bulls Feb 27 $156 +$3 +2%
Suns vs. Spurs Feb 22 $156 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Feb 20 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Feb 20 $58 +$1 +1%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Feb 04 $147 +$6 +4%
Pistons vs. Lakers Jan 24 $112 +$1 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 Dec 31 $30 +$4 +13%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Dec 14 $161 +$10 +6%
Thunder vs. Jazz Dec 10 $159 +$2 +1%
Thunder vs. Warriors Dec 08 $50 +$4 +8%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Dec 03 $154 +$2 +1%
Spread: Lakers (-6.5) Nov 26 $50 +$2 +3%
Clippers vs. Lakers Nov 26 $60 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 93¢ $30 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND BUY 39¢ $20 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY $15 4d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 80¢ $50 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $50 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $233 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 85¢ $20 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $86 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $35 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $84 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $10 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $10 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $129 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 85¢ $90 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $101 6d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 36¢ $75 22d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 22d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 22d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 22d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 22d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 22d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 63¢ $124 23d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 64¢ $128 23d
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) BUY Cavaliers 90¢ $50 32d
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) BUY Cavaliers 92¢ $50 32d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 76¢ $38 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.03 · official $111.03 (match) · 437 history records