Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdcc2…8b9b sports 593 markets active 3h ago coverage 50d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$763 (-3%) realized −$763 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%234W / 359L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day56.1pace
Fees−$329est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,039
other 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -24.0% -31.2% 33% 28% -26.6%
≤30d 375 -41.3% -46.9% 33% 28% -37.2%
≤90d 593 -32.0% -38.5% 39% 30% -34.2%
all 593 -32.0% -38.5% 39% 30% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.5% 30% -34.2%
10% ← realistic here -44.4% 22% -40.5%
15% -49.7% 13% -46.2%
20% -54.7% 9% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$763
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses234 / 359
Est. fees paid−$329
Open positions0
Markets (closed)593 / 593
History coverage50d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day56.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 593 Trades
no open positions (231 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $17 +$18 +105%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $111 −$11 -10%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $14 +$9 +65%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $83 −$82 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $37 +$62 +167%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $163 −$107 -66%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $28 +$2 +6%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $96 +$104 +108%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -39%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $32 −$13 -39%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $126 −$125 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $23 +$7 +30%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $53 +$7 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $57 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $26 −$3 -12%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $26 −$4 -15%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $4 −$3 -89%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $21 +$9 +45%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$10 +50%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $6 −$4 -66%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $35 −$6 -18%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $65 −$45 -69%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $207 +$54 +26%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $179 −$54 -30%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -89%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $7 +$43 +650%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $49 −$7 -13%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 −$36 -36%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $70 −$20 -29%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 −$46 -46%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $238 −$38 -16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $64 −$30 -47%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $97 $0 -0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $42 −$6 -15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $95 $0 -0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$7 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 60¢ $24 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $3 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $12 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $20 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $18 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $56 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $17 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $17 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $83 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $100 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $100 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $55 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $5 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $19 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $22 6h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 59¢ $30 6h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 55¢ $28 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $13 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $24 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $1 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $6 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $55 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $200 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 8h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $3 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 20¢ $16 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $32 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $49 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3076 history records