Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcc3…d8e9 crypto 1722 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%142W / 1565L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day51.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$21
sports 4% +$42
other 3% −$11
world 0% −$12
politics 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1707 +1.0% -8.6% 8% 3% -9.3%
≤30d 1707 +1.0% -8.6% 8% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 1707 +1.0% -8.6% 8% 3% -9.3%
all 1707 +1.0% -8.6% 8% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 3% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.3% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.7% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses142 / 1565
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1707 / 1722
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day51.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1707 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Twisted Minds 72¢ 100¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+38%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 100¢ $5 $12 +$6 (+117%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 51¢ 84¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+66%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 90¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+52%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals No 55¢ 66¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 74¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+111%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 65¢ 69¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 40¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 74¢ 34¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-55%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 27¢ 20¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 34¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Yes 69¢ 20¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-70%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 31¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Will Brayden McNabb lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in assists? No 89¢ 3¢ $14 $0 −$13 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$5 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$5 +38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $6 +$8 +146%
Will the announcers say "Championship" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +134%
Will the announcers say "Triangle" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Amad Diallo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $8 +$4 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$5 +57%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$6 +48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $8 +$6 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$7 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$5 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 +$3 +52%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 +$4 +97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$12 +188%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 +$9 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 55m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3h
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? BUY No 99¢ $15 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 41¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 51¢ $4 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $9 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $4 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $7 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $4 10h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 27¢ $4 10h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 99¢ $15 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 11h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 55¢ $7 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA BUY Twisted Minds 72¢ $13 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $7 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $5 13h
Will Brayden McNabb lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in assists? BUY No 89¢ $7 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.03 · official $90.25 · 3500 history records