Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdcc4…8c57 crypto 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$69 (-19%) realized −$94 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$75
crypto 31% −$12
other 17% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -42.1% -47.6% 40% 40% -53.8%
≤30d 21 -9.5% -18.1% 48% 48% -39.7%
≤90d 21 -9.5% -18.1% 48% 48% -39.7%
all 21 -9.5% -18.1% 48% 48% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 48% -39.7%
10% -25.9% 48% -45.5%
15% -33.1% 48% -50.7%
20% -39.6% 38% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage21d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Infinite 61¢ 100¢ $39 $63 +$25 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 +$13 +42%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $24 +$12 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 31 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 31 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 31 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 31 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 31 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 31 $6 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 31 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 31 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 61¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League SELL INOX Division 57¢ $39 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division 66¢ $45 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $32 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $26 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $14 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.31 · official $63.31 (match) · 39 history records