Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdcc7…fc33 sports 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$990 (+5%) realized +$975 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate73%89W / 33L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$60
14 days+$175
30 days+$790
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,070
other 3% −$193
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +11.9% +1.3% 67% 56% -12.6%
≤30d 62 +18.5% +7.2% 77% 68% +0.9%
≤90d 122 +8.9% -1.5% 73% 63% -5.6%
all 122 +8.9% -1.5% 73% 63% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 63% -5.6%
10% -10.9% 51% -14.7%
15% -19.5% 37% -22.9%
20% -27.4% 21% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$89 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized+$975
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses89 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions6
Markets (closed)122 / 128
History coverage92d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $102 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $85 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $66 $69 +$3 (+5%)
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $49 $63 +$14 (+28%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Yes 29¢ 47¢ $29 $47 +$18 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $60 +$21 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $43 +$37 +85%
Will Hanwha Life Esports qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $81 −$29 -35%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $86 +$87 +101%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $37 +$13 +36%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $98 +$77 +79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $252 −$50 -20%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$15 +29%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $37 +$13 +34%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $67 −$27 -40%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$31 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $41 +$43 +105%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $268 +$32 +12%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 12 $158 −$156 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $101 +$95 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$55 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$26 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 10 $151 −$150 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $502 +$78 +16%
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $18 +$9 +50%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $500 +$10 +2%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $76 +$30 +40%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $86 −$85 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $76 +$80 +105%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $41 +$45 +110%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $141 +$54 +38%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $51 −$26 -51%
Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) Jun 06 $101 +$26 +26%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $80 +$50 +62%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $76 +$23 +31%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $101 +$24 +24%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $151 +$57 +38%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 −$15 -74%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) Jun 01 $101 +$50 +50%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 01 $150 +$14 +10%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $61 −$21 -35%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 30 $95 +$30 +32%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 30 $75 +$10 +13%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $201 +$19 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $126 +$75 +60%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $101 +$26 +26%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $8 +$5 +60%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $201 +$65 +32%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $41 +$34 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $86 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $60 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $43 41h
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will Hanwha Life Esports qualify to MSI 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 2d
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $67 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 43¢ $52 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $81 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $20 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $41 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $25 4d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 73¢ $37 4d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 55¢ $98 4d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 57¢ $202 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $101 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 74¢ $62 5d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 74¢ $37 5d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Cloud9 33¢ $40 5d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 51¢ $31 5d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 53¢ $67 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $151 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 89¢ $268 5d
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 9¢ $35 6d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 6d
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $102 6d
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $158 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.96 · official $445.96 (match) · 271 history records