Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdcc9…0e26 weather 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+4%) realized +$28 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate66%19W / 10L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$38
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.5% -10.0% 66% 31% -6.0%
≤30d 29 -0.5% -10.0% 66% 31% -6.0%
≤90d 29 -0.5% -10.0% 66% 31% -6.0%
all 29 -0.5% -10.0% 66% 31% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 31% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 10% -15.0%
15% -26.5% 7% -23.2%
20% -33.7% 3% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.36 per $1 lost it wins $3.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses19 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage3d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29? No 92¢ 99¢ $74 $79 +$6 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29? Yes 66¢ 95¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? No 76¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? Jun 29 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 30? Jun 29 $40 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29? Jun 29 $23 −$6 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? Jun 29 $72 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $37 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 29? Jun 28 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $61 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $60 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $53 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $49 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $48 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? SELL No 92¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 76¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 80¢ $35 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29? SELL No 69¢ $17 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? SELL No 93¢ $17 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 29? SELL No 97¢ $41 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $23 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? SELL No 98¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? SELL No 98¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? SELL No 98¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 29? BUY No 86¢ $19 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 29? BUY No 88¢ $18 11h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? SELL No 90¢ $37 11h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 86¢ $72 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 80¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 80¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 80¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $38 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 87¢ $20 27h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 88¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 29? SELL No 87¢ $33 30h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 29? SELL No 90¢ $17 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.73 · official $84.73 (match) · 80 history records