Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdcd0…0db7 tech 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy tech specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$55 (+10%) realized +$57 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 66% +$22
other 17% +$17
world 15% +$16
crypto 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 1 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 14 +2.1% -7.7% 71% 64% -0.2%
all 15 +2.2% -7.6% 73% 60% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 60% -0.4%
10% -16.4% 27% -9.9%
15% -24.5% 7% -18.6%
20% -31.9% 0% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage99d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 33¢ 31¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? May 20 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $15 −$14 -95%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $5 −$3 -63%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $80 +$16 +20%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $45 +$18 +40%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $10 +$2 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 12 $30 +$4 +13%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 11 $39 +$5 +14%
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? Apr 10 $58 +$16 +27%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Apr 09 $14 −$4 -28%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Apr 03 $10 +$3 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 03 $30 +$5 +18%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $10 +$3 +35%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $15 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 1h
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 25d
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? SELL Yes 44¢ $60 33d
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 48d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 53d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 55d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 58d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 58d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 59d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 59d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 59d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 60d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 62d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $53 62d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 64d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 65d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 65d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? SELL Yes 82¢ $51 66d
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 69d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 69d
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 70d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 88¢ $34 70d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 78¢ $30 71d
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $44 71d
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $39 72d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $35 72d
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $74 72d
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $13 73d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL No 48¢ $10 73d
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $20 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.48 · official $23.56 (match) · 43 history records