Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:25:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcd2…0156 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$347 (-5%) realized −$347 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$502
7 days−$506
14 days−$506
30 days−$499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$498
sports 38% −$359
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.6% -19.1% 0% 0% -20.8%
≤30d 11 -7.8% -16.6% 18% 18% -20.2%
≤90d 14 -7.3% -16.1% 14% 14% -20.2%
all 34 -11.3% -19.8% 38% 24% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 24% -20.7%
10% -27.4% 9% -28.3%
15% -34.4% 6% -35.3%
20% -40.9% 3% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$52 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$347
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage157d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,028 −$502 -12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$2 -9%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-29? May 25 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? May 25 $5 $0 -10%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 25 $6 $0 -9%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $44 +$10 +23%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $33 −$24 -72%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-20? May 19 $5 $0 -7%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $3 $0 -6%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 31 $3 $0 +11%
Spread: Celtics (-9.5) Jan 31 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 31 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 31 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 31 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 31 $9 +$1 +7%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 28 $1 $0 -4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 27 $420 −$110 -26%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 27 $176 +$37 +21%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 27 $97 +$12 +13%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 27 $11 $0 -2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 17 $501 −$397 -79%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Jan 17 $79 −$9 -11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jan 17 $20 +$12 +58%
LoL: LNG Esports vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Jan 16 $506 +$89 +18%
LoL: LNG Esports vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Jan 16 $93 +$10 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jan 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jan 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jan 14 $659 +$46 +7%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 14 $26 −$6 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 40¢ $1,446 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 50¢ $1,853 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 55¢ $2,059 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 56¢ $2,153 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records