Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DC 0xdcd4…c870 sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,589 (-14%) realized −$1,616 · open +$27
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%43W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$643
30 days−$844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$836
other 22% −$852
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 33 -30.2% -36.9% 33% 30% -45.8%
≤90d 43 -19.8% -27.4% 40% 37% -23.5%
all 111 -18.8% -26.5% 39% 36% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 36% -23.4%
10% -33.5% 32% -30.7%
15% -39.9% 32% -37.4%
20% -45.8% 28% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$75 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$1,616
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses43 / 68
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage173d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Under 54¢ 96¢ $45 $80 +$35 (+77%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 29¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $70 −$69 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$59 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$39 +344%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 +$34 +66%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $71 −$46 -64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 +$55 +136%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $89 −$87 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $99 −$95 -96%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $150 −$108 -72%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$125 +123%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $128 −$125 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $65 −$64 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $91 −$90 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$40 +81%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $27 −$27 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $50 +$48 +95%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $26 −$26 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $71 +$26 +36%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $94 −$92 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$43 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $154 −$144 -94%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $80 +$14 +17%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 24 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $90 +$14 +16%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 08 $100 +$82 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Apr 26 $128 +$102 +79%
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5) Apr 26 $130 −$2 -1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Apr 26 $62 −$62 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $157 +$130 +83%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 215.5 Apr 26 $80 +$87 +109%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Apr 25 $131 +$106 +81%
Pistons vs. Suns Jan 30 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Jan 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 25 $40 +$6 +16%
Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5 Jan 25 $70 −$70 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 3.5 Jan 25 $60 +$10 +17%
Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 25 $93 +$67 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 29¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $46 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 20¢ $19 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $20 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $51 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 8d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 22¢ $11 8d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $111 8d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 86¢ $38 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 77¢ $22 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 58¢ $25 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 42¢ $24 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 43¢ $51 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $20 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $71 8d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 91¢ $54 9d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 87¢ $41 9d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 37¢ $40 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 10d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $89 11d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 11d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye $4 11d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 11d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $99 11d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $41 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $42 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $150 12d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 39¢ $46 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.17 · official $82.17 (match) · 218 history records