Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcd5…210e sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$141 (+236%) realized +$164 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$37
world 17% −$3
weather 9% +$29
crypto 8% −$5
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.5% -23.5% 22% 11% +12.9%
≤30d 9 -15.5% -23.5% 22% 11% +12.9%
≤90d 9 -15.5% -23.5% 22% 11% +12.9%
all 9 -15.5% -23.5% 22% 11% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 11% +12.9%
10% -30.9% 11% +2.1%
15% -37.5% 11% -7.7%
20% -43.7% 11% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$3 · ×4.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$164
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$29 +556%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.40 · official $7.40 (match) · 15 history records