Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DC
0xdcd7…d6f4
world · 33 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage292d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $46 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $45 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $21 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $77 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $5 $0 -7%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Jan 31 $13 $0 -4%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 17 $1 $0 -28%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 08 $6 $0 -6%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 28 $12 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Aug 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4000 and $4200 on August 27? Aug 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 45% +$3
other 23% −$1
politics 21% $0
crypto 8% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $46 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $47 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $46 8h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 41h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 43h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $39 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $4 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $4 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $45 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $42 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $42 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $45 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $45 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $33 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $33 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.0% -8.7% 62% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -8.9%
all 32 -1.2% -10.6% 28% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.16 · official $46.17 (match) · 122 history records