Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcdc…1024 politics 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 33L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$7
world 25% −$3
other 11% −$2
sports 6% −$2
economics 6% −$1
tech 6% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 34 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$813) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage83d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 17 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $953 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $77 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $943 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $90 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 13 $34 $0 -1%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? May 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 10 $795 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $805 −$2 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first r May 09 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? May 09 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Quintero win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president May 09 $835 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $813 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 05 $95 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026? Apr 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 01 $122 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 01 $26 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Apr 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $120 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Seri Mar 26 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,004 55m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $970 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1,026 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,017 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $743 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $11 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $208 2h
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $19 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $953 2h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $941 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $17 29h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 29h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $929 29h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 29h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $737 29h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $60 30h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $242 41h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $980 42h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $90 34d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 34d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $16 34d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records