Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DC 0xdcdd…6d55 sports 1130 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,477 (+11%) realized +$3,489 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%618W / 495L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$366est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$558
other 17% +$1,397
world 0% +$12
politics 0% −$4
crypto 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 238 +1.8% -7.9% 53% 52% +5.3%
≤30d 344 +7.4% -2.8% 53% 53% +3.3%
≤90d 1113 +1.9% -7.8% 56% 53% -7.2%
all 1113 +1.9% -7.8% 56% 53% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 53% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 50% -16.1%
15% -24.7% 43% -24.2%
20% -32.1% 35% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$3,489
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses618 / 495
Est. fees paid−$366
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1113 / 1130
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Elina Svitolina 40¢ 69¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+72%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Liudmila Samsonova 45¢ 31¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-31%)
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Benjamin Hassan 60¢ 53¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Miguel Damas 48¢ 47¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 57¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+31%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Kimberly Birrell 45¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+56%)
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 61¢ 38¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Barbora Krejcikova 55¢ 30¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-45%)
Plovdiv: Thomas Fancutt vs Mathys Erhard Mathys Erhard 56¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+74%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 35¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic Radu Albot 59¢ 36¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo Xiyu Wang 58¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+48%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Clervie Ngounoue Clervie Ngounoue 58¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Panama 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: SHK (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) Sharks 60¢ 69¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 68¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Ribera Lola Radivojevic 40¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal Mili Poljicak 48¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Uzbekistan 36¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $9 $0 -4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $41 −$2 -6%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet Jun 23 $10 −$6 -67%
Plovdiv: Philip Henning vs Andres Santamarta Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $129 −$66 -51%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $9 +$7 +79%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $6 +$8 +152%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $3 +$3 +79%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $17 +$11 +61%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $25 +$8 +33%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Mia Pohankova Jun 23 $7 +$8 +126%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Linda Klimovicova Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $12 +$13 +108%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $31 −$9 -30%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Alicia Dudeney vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 23 $11 +$4 +40%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $20 +$3 +15%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe Jun 23 $1 +$1 +46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $305 +$154 +50%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 $0 +26%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $8 −$5 -62%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $11 +$4 +38%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $4 +$5 +114%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $63 +$46 +73%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 −$52 -86%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $2 $0 +26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $174 +$76 +44%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $2 +$1 +62%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $15 +$9 +59%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $24 +$24 +101%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $3 $0 -17%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $5 +$2 +45%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $52 −$28 -54%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $1 +$1 +90%
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Gabriel Ghetu Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $5 +$4 +89%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $318 +$151 +47%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $6 −$4 -72%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $10 −$3 -35%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb Jun 22 $1 +$1 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 22 $1 +$1 +48%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Uzbekistan 54¢ $8 18m
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Liudmila Samsonova 37¢ $5 19m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 21m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 55¢ $6 24m
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Radu Albot 59¢ $2 31m
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Radu Albot 59¢ $2 31m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo BUY Xiyu Wang 58¢ $2 31m
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 51¢ $1 36m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber BUY Lola Radivojevic 40¢ $1 39m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 40m
Map Handicap: SHK (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) BUY Sharks 60¢ $1 40m
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 46¢ $5 41m
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 37¢ $4 42m
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 36¢ $5 43m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Kimberly Birrell 45¢ $3 52m
Plovdiv: Thomas Fancutt vs Mathys Erhard BUY Mathys Erhard 56¢ $2 54m
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Liudmila Samsonova 50¢ $5 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Liudmila Samsonova 49¢ $5 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 51¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Clervie Ngounoue BUY Clervie Ngounoue 58¢ $1 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 75¢ $3 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 37¢ $4 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $4 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 54¢ $4 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 53¢ $1 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 54¢ $4 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 45¢ $6 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 47¢ $10 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet BUY Jessika Ponchet 67¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.31 · official $107.31 (match) · 3500 history records