Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcdd…73a5 sports 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23,499 (-23%) realized −$23,142 · open −$357
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%50W / 97L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$655per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$873est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5,743now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$690
7 days−$658
14 days−$1,674
30 days−$4,580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$19,270
world 21% +$1,560
politics 10% −$1,853
finance 3% −$2,934
other 2% −$1,139
crypto 2% −$753
economics 2% −$682
tech 2% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.8% -32.0% 50% 50% -38.8%
≤30d 24 -57.5% -61.6% 29% 21% -52.0%
≤90d 145 -18.7% -26.4% 34% 30% -32.7%
all 147 -19.8% -27.4% 34% 29% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 29% -33.2%
10% -34.4% 26% -39.6%
15% -40.7% 22% -45.4%
20% -46.5% 16% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$589) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$359 vs −$441 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$5,743
Realized−$23,142
Unrealized−$357
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses50 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$873
Open positions11
Markets (closed)147 / 158
History coverage94d
Avg bet$655
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 75¢ 78¢ $2,000 $2,093 +$93 (+5%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 59¢ $1,800 $1,578 −$222 (-12%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 60¢ 79¢ $400 $525 +$125 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 51¢ 62¢ $300 $368 +$68 (+23%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 40¢ 44¢ $300 $326 +$26 (+9%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $500 $268 −$232 (-46%)
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 39¢ 33¢ $200 $169 −$31 (-15%)
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 31¢ 14¢ $200 $95 −$105 (-53%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $100 $39 −$61 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $1,522 −$691 -45%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $400 +$132 +33%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $510 −$500 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $495 −$486 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $21 −$20 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $177 −$169 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $107 −$100 -94%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $970 +$441 +46%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $15 −$15 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $103 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $1,511 −$1,304 -86%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $213 −$67 -32%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $607 +$346 +57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $302 +$79 +26%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $128 −$126 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $589 +$14 +2%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $101 +$5 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 07 $200 −$167 -84%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 07 $200 −$139 -70%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? May 07 $200 −$174 -87%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 07 $10 +$11 +102%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 07 $103 −$48 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 07 $616 −$163 -26%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 07 $300 −$265 -88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? May 07 $105 −$12 -11%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? May 07 $100 −$7 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 07 $213 −$112 -53%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 07 $600 −$390 -65%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $200 +$89 +44%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 07 $950 +$273 +29%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $900 +$292 +32%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 07 $2,300 +$934 +41%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? May 07 $1,900 +$111 +6%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch May 06 $407 −$259 -64%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 06 $4,740 −$4,586 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $459 −$150 -33%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 06 $531 +$97 +18%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 06 $735 −$10 -1%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin May 06 $3,454 −$2,272 -66%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 06 $840 +$541 +64%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 03 $429 −$420 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 03 $2,160 +$206 +10%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? May 03 $100 −$43 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 40¢ $103 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 40¢ $831 1h
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? BUY No 88¢ $10 6h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 70¢ $1,522 7h
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $209 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $300 32h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 9¢ $100 2d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $800 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 31¢ $200 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 39¢ $200 2d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $1,000 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $500 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $100 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 60¢ $400 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $300 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $2,000 2d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 29¢ $204 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $0 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $306 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 41¢ $10 11d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 28¢ $190 12d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 37¢ $204 12d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 65¢ $101 12d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 7¢ $21 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 30¢ $177 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 5¢ $107 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 19¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,742.57 · official $5,742.57 (match) · 568 history records