Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:53:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdcdf…8116 sports 208 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$270 (-2%) realized −$270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%112W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$102
14 days+$102
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$360
other 6% +$115
weather 5% +$24
crypto 4% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -18.8% -26.6% 39% 38% -2.6%
≤30d 156 -15.3% -23.4% 51% 46% -12.3%
≤90d 197 -15.8% -23.8% 52% 47% -12.6%
all 208 -14.1% -22.3% 54% 49% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 49% -11.8%
10% -29.7% 39% -20.2%
15% -36.5% 27% -27.9%
20% -42.7% 19% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$34 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses112 / 96
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 208
History coverage108d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions (82 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $34 +$44 +132%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $34 +$66 +197%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $46 +$3 +7%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $165 +$85 +52%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $167 +$54 +32%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Francesca Jones Jun 22 $40 −$39 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $26 −$26 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $13 +$21 +165%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Jun 22 $37 −$36 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $27 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +39%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $9 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $14 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $207 +$54 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$7 +270%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $45 +$74 +166%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 93¢ $78 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova SELL Gabriela Ruse 100¢ $100 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 40¢ $34 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 33¢ $34 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Eva Lys 36¢ $49 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Eva Lys 36¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $46 6h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $154 15h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 15h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 15h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $167 18h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Venus Williams 22¢ $21 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 23¢ $40 22h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Solana Sierra 35¢ $11 24h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Solana Sierra 35¢ $15 24h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 13¢ $6 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Clara Tauson 100¢ $34 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova BUY Hannah Klugman 28¢ $37 26h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $1 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 37¢ $13 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $29 28h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $18 29h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 58¢ $7 29h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 74¢ $7 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 456 history records