Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdce2…217d world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% $0
world 22% $0
crypto 16% $0
politics 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 30% 10% -10.7%
≤30d 17 -2.4% -11.7% 24% 12% -11.8%
≤90d 18 -2.4% -11.7% 22% 11% -11.8%
all 18 -2.4% -11.7% 22% 11% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 11% -11.8%
10% -20.1% 6% -20.2%
15% -27.8% 6% -27.9%
20% -34.9% 6% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage58d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +12%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$2 +114%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 -15%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? May 24 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 72¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 73¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 94¢ $1 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 93¢ $1 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 6d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $1 6d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $1 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $2 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $2 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.02 · official $2.02 (match) · 51 history records