Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdce5…0f71 crypto 1533 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (239 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$584 (-10%) realized −$558 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%608W / 609L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day239.3pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$629
7 days−$356
14 days−$135
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$605
sports 30% −$26
other 3% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (239 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 546 -8.3% -17.0% 32% 28% -28.3%
≤30d 1217 +2.2% -7.6% 50% 47% -12.9%
≤90d 1217 +2.2% -7.6% 50% 47% -12.9%
all 1217 +2.2% -7.6% 50% 47% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover239.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 47% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 39% -21.3%
15% -24.5% 28% -28.9%
20% -31.9% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$558
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses608 / 609
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1217 / 1533
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day239.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 22¢ 3¢ $30 $4 −$26 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 12m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 4¢ $8 15m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 5¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 22m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 16¢ $12 54m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 63¢ $51 54m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 36¢ $51 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 35¢ $35 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 49¢ $51 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 60¢ $47 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 64¢ $51 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 34¢ $256 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 65¢ $505 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 69¢ $462 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 74¢ $504 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 46¢ $480 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $508 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.17 · official $4.17 (match) · 3500 history records