trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Jun 12 | $102 | −$6 | -6% |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $100 | +$100 | +100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $600 | −$200 | -33% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 04 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 24 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy | Mar 16 | $6 | −$1 | -16% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Mar 09 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | Mar 08 | $1 | +$2 | +200% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 08 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Mar 08 | $10 | −$9 | -100% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates | Mar 04 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Mar 04 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | Mar 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +47.1% | +33.1% | 50% | 50% | +32.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +20.3% | +8.8% | 33% | 33% | -21.5% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -39.9% | -45.6% | 17% | 17% | -24.4% |
| all | 13 | -41.5% | -47.1% | 15% | 15% | -27.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -47.1% | 15% | -27.5% |
| 10% | -52.1% | 15% | -34.4% |
| 15% | -56.7% | 15% | -40.8% |
| 20% | -61.0% | 15% | -46.6% |