Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdce6…6069 other 526 markets active 1h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,053 (-6%) realized −$1,046 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%115W / 391L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days−$158
14 days−$141
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$630
sports 42% −$466
crypto 10% −$80
world 2% −$158
politics 1% −$33
culture 0% −$19
economics 0% −$13
weather 0% −$9
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +61.2% +45.9% 40% 38% -14.7%
≤30d 67 +19.9% +8.5% 31% 30% -16.8%
≤90d 434 -7.9% -16.7% 24% 20% -15.7%
all 506 -11.1% -19.6% 23% 19% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 19% -15.9%
10% -27.3% 16% -23.9%
15% -34.3% 14% -31.3%
20% -40.8% 13% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1,046
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses115 / 391
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions20
Markets (closed)506 / 526
History coverage618d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+200%)
Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will a team from CBLOL (Brazil) win MSI 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win MSI 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 +$8 +413%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $443 −$190 -43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$11 +206%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $300 +$52 +17%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $66 −$53 -81%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $168 −$115 -68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $79 −$5 -6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $70 −$2 -3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$30 -25%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $11 −$8 -69%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 15 $12 −$8 -61%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $368 −$13 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $257 +$191 +74%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $239 −$103 -43%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$6 -50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 +$5 +58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $60 +$15 +26%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $78 +$3 +4%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -44%
Anthropic acquired before 2027? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$11 -13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $26 +$14 +54%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1843%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$4 +213%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$5 +475%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $112 +$42 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $172 +$31 +18%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamen Jun 09 $2 −$1 -65%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $13 −$13 -96%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 24 $22 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 50¢ $253 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $443 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $16 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $39 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $36 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 25h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $352 25h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $300 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 33h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 33h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 12¢ $12 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $66 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.54 · official $42.54 (match) · 1919 history records