Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdce7…8bcf politics 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$1
world 40% +$1
other 10% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 22 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 9% -9.7%
all 22 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 9% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 5% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)22 / 38
History coverage31d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 07 $5 $0 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 -4%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $5 $0 -2%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? May 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $5 $0 -0%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? May 22 $5 $0 -6%
Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary elect May 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? May 21 $10 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 20 $5 $0 -8%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 18 $15 $0 -1%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? May 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A May 17 $15 −$1 -3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 1m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 1m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 2m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 5m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 7m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 9m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 9m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 12m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 18m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 19m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 20m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 21m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 26m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 26m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 29m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 37m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 38m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 39m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 43m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 45m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 47m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 49m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 49m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 51m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 53m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 53m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 54m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 54m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 56m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $0 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.39 · official $93.39 (match) · 280 history records