Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcea…a91c other 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$325 (-14%) realized −$314 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%29W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$36
14 days−$330
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$308
sports 12% +$236
crypto 9% −$135
world 6% −$130
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -23.8% -31.1% 25% 25% -12.9%
≤30d 138 -2.5% -11.8% 21% 20% -22.6%
≤90d 140 -3.9% -13.1% 21% 20% -23.3%
all 140 -3.9% -13.1% 21% 20% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 20% -23.3%
10% -21.4% 19% -30.7%
15% -29.0% 19% -37.4%
20% -36.0% 16% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$11 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$314
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses29 / 111
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)140 / 142
History coverage42d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $70 $60 −$10 (-14%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$26 +510%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $6 +$10 +158%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$33 +650%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $151 +$66 +44%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $109 +$57 +52%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 42h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.96 · official $61.83 · 222 history records