Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:47:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DC 0xdceb…3956 other 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 138L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$21
politics 34% −$25
sports 10% +$16
crypto 7% −$3
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 148 +1.0% -8.7% 7% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 6% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×10.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)148 / 151
History coverage124d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $318 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $335 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $267 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $219 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $232 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $271 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $295 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 12 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $241 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 10 $212 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $236 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $245 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $266 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $258 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $284 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $240 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 02 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $235 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $287 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $226 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $302 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $273 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $297 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $280 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $269 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $278 −$2 -1%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $314 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $254 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $467 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $42 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $40 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $40 21d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $267 28d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $267 30d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 30d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 31d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 31d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $235 32d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $216 32d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $216 33d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $239 33d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $239 34d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $219 34d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $219 35d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $271 35d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $271 35d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $232 35d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $232 35d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 36d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 37d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $271 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.08 · official $100.08 (match) · 441 history records